TIMELINE: How regional tensions, stalled nuclear talks triggered US-Israel offensive against Iran

On February 28, the United States and Israel launchedmissile strikes on Iran, despite ongoing talks between Washington and Tehranover the Islamic nation’s controversial nuclear programme. The strikes were a culmination of two overlapping crisistracks: the 2025 joint US-Israel nuclear‐site raids in Iran anddecades-long regional tensions. Israel and Iranian proxies have been engaged in conflictsince 1985, which escalated into a series of direct confrontations in 2024, anda 12-day war in June 2025 that also saw US strikes aimed at destroying Iran’snuclear facilities. Saturday’s strikes were the most intense escalation oftensions between Iran and the US-Israel tag team yet — which saw the death ofAyatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. He was 86. Here is a timeline of events that led to the recentstrikes in the Islamic Republic. JUNE 2025: On June 13, 2025, Israel struck Iran,targeting its nuclear facilities. The intense 12-day conflict killed topnuclear scientists, military commanders, and over 600 civilians. RetaliatoryIranian strikes in Israel killed some 28 people and injured thousands. On June21, 2025, the US bombed Iran’s key nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, andIsfahan. An early intelligence assessment from the Pentagon assessedthat the US and Israeli strikes damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities, but “did notdestroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely onlyset it back by months,” Arms Control Association reported, citing officialsfamiliar with the assessment. But the White House denied the finding, saying Iran’snuclear programme was completely destroyed. Iran countered the White House’sclaims. After 12 days of daily missile and drone exchanges, a US‐brokeredceasefire is announced. DECEMBER 2025: Protests erupted on December 28, 2025,in Tehran, sparked by the national currency’s plunge to record lows (around 1.4million rials per US dollar) and a sudden spike in prices for food and basicgoods. The rial had already lost more than 40 percent of its valuesince Israel’s 12-day conflict with Iran. Those losses were just the latest ina prolonged collapse that had erased nearly 90 percent of the rial’s valuesince the US quit the nuclear deal it had with Iran and reimposed sanctions onthe Islamic Republic in 2018. The nuclear deal, known as the joint comprehensive plan ofaction (JCPOA), was a 2015 agreement between Iran and several world powers torestrict Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for relief of internationalsanctions on Iran. Within days the unrest spread to dozens of cities, withcitizens chanting anti‐government slogans and calling for the end of theIslamic Republic system. The protests were met with a violent state clampdown. In thefirst few weeks of the demonstrations, over 2,000 people were killed, accordingto rights groups and security officials. The death toll in the protests which crept into Februaryhave been highly contested. International media houses and rights groups peggedthe cumulative death toll at about 30,000, but Iranian officials said thefigures were exaggerated and that the number stood at around 3,000. JANUARY: While the protests raged, US PresidentDonald Trump on January 2, publicly encouraged Iranians to continuedemonstrating. He warned that the US would intervene if security forces“violently killed” demonstrators, stating the US was “locked and loaded andready to go”. The call was re-echoed on this rhetoric most prominently onJanuary 13 when he urged “Iran Patriots” to take over state institutions,declaring that “help” was on its way and promising that the “killers andabusers” would “pay a big price”. On January 26, US warships were reported to have arrived inthe Middle East. Trump said the massive armada, a large fleet of warship, wasmoving quickly to Iran with “great power, enthusiasm, and purpose” unless Iranmakes a nuclear deal. Iran vowed a “strong response” should the US attack. FEBRUARY: Nuclear talks between both countriesresumed in February in hopes of diffusing tensions. The indirect discussionsbetween both countries were mediated by Oman. These sessions, spanning February 17-26, involved three mainrounds, described as the “most intense” yet, with Abbas Araghchi, Iran’sforeign minister leading Tehran’s side, and Steve Witkoff, US special envoy;and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law; representing the US. No final deal emerged, but both sides claimed “progress,”including agreement on “general guiding principles” for IAEA oversight of siteslike Natanz and Fordow. Barely 48 hours after the “progress” report, shots werefired. FEBRUARY 28 – THE OPENING HOURS Around 06:23 GMT (08:23 local in Israel) – On Saturday,Israel Katz, Israeli defence minister, announces a “pre-emptive” strike onIran. Sirens sound across Israel simultaneously as the Israeli Defense Forces(IDF) warns civilians to stay close to bomb shelters. Within 30 minutes – Iran and Israel both close theircivilian airspace, and the Israeli military says it has destroyed key Iranianair

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