DR Congo: Democratic Republic of Congo | Population Movement - Operation Update #6 (MDRCD043)

Country: Democratic Republic of the Congo Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Please refer to the attached file. A. SITUATION ANALYSIS Description of the crisis Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to face one of the world’s most complex and protracted humanitarian crises, driven by conflict, displacement, and recurrent natural hazards. More than 5.2 million internally displaced people are concentrated in North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri, with 96% displaced due to armed violence. These provinces, historically marked by weak governance, chronic poverty, and limited access to services, are also rich in minerals, making them hotspots for contestation and insecurity. Since 2024, conflict between FARDC/Wazalendo forces and the M23 armed group has sharply intensified. The situation deteriorated further from August 2024, particularly following M23's advance through Lubero and towards southern North Kivu. Major urban centers including Goma, Butembo, Minova and Sake have experienced repeated waves of violence and mass population movements. The fall of Goma in January 2025 triggered an exodus of hundreds of thousands, the closure of displacement sites, and premature, unsafe returns in surrounding territories. The crisis is now characterized by simultaneous mass displacement and forced or premature returns, particularly in Masisi, Rutshuru, Kalehe, Minova, and Uvira. Many families return to destroyed homes, looted villages, or contested land, with over 60% living in damaged shelters and more than one-third facing land access challenges (IFRC, Oct. 2025). Communities returning to insecure environments face heightened risks of gender-based violence, forced recruitment, extortion, and exploitation. Women-headed households, representing nearly half of returnees, are disproportionately affected due to limited access to land, credit, and livelihood opportunities. These trends are straining host communities already challenged by poverty, food insecurity, and limited infrastructure. Rising tensions over land, water points, and aid further threaten social cohesion. Recent Escalation and Key Events - August – October 2024: Ceasefire agreements between DRC and Rwanda (Luanda, July 2024) fail to hold as clashes continue. - January 2025: Fighting escalates in Goma’s outskirts, culminating in a full-scale assault on the city. - January 25, 2025: M23 seizes large parts of Goma, including the airport, triggering mass displacement. - January 29, 2025: Goma falls completely under M23 control, marking the beginning of their advance towards South Kivu. - February 2025: WHO reports 3,082 injured civilians, with 843 deaths in medical facilities since late February. The total casualty count since March 2024 stands at 6,151. - By June 2025: Over 1.03 million IDPs and 2.01 million returnees were recorded in North Kivu. Fighting in Rutshuru, Masisi, Lubero and Walikale caused repeated new displacements, with 61 civilians killed and more than 766 houses burned in Bwito alone. Attacks by ADF in Lubero killed 35 civilians in June, while Goma and Nyiragongo reported over 6,300 cases of Mpox (OCHA, June 2025). - August 2025: North Kivu and South Kivu provinces continued to face major security challenges. Repeated attacks by ADF in North Kivu, combined with the war waged by the Congo River Alliance / M23 (AFC/M23) in both provinces, further undermined civilian security. Nearly 138,000 people were newly displaced in Masisi, resulting in 1,335 documented violations and abuses (Protection Cluster, Sept. 2025). - In Ituri: Violence surged in July–August 2025, displacing over 122,000 people in Djugu and 50,000 in Irumu. By end of August, Djugu hosted 623,000 IDPs and Irumu nearly 191,000 (OCHA, Aug 2025). - Late 2025 – South Kivu (Uvira): The advance and takeover of Uvira by the AFC/M23 marked a major expansion of the conflict into a strategic urban and cross-border hub. According to preliminary inter-cluster estimates, close to 600,000 people were displaced or affected by population movements linked to the Uvira crisis, including large-scale new and secondary displacement across Uvira, Ruzizi, and Fizi territories. Movements included intra-urban displacement, displacement towards surrounding rural areas and neighbouring territories, as well as limited cross-border movements. Since early 2025, hostilities have reached unprecedented levels, directly impacting urban centres such as Goma, Sake, Minova, and Uvira, where thousands of families have fled multiple times. The fall of Goma and the subsequent expansion of the conflict into South Kivu resulted not only in new displacements but also in premature and unsafe returns, as communities sought refuge in partially secured zones. Assessments conducted by the DRC Red Cross and the IFRC (May–June 2025) confirm that more than 40% of returnees had no access to basic shelter, while 28% were living in schools or public buildings, highlighting the growing overlap

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