Country: Zimbabwe Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Following the peak of the 2025/26 lean season in February/March, deficit-producing areas in the south, east, west, and extreme north continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to depleted own-produced food stocks, high market prices, and below average incomes. Surplus-producing areas remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with households minimally meeting their food needs but struggling to meet their non-food needs. While green harvests are slightly improving dietary diversity, they are not significant to change the current food security outcomes. Near-average harvests expected in April/May are likely to improve household food security outcomes with households transitioning to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in deficit-producing areas and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in surplus-producing areas. Below-average harvests in some areas will likely result in affected households depleting their own produced stocks earlier than normal and starting to rely on the market earlier for staple cereals. Following the prolonged dry spell from the end of January through February which caused severe moisture stress and some crop losses, rains in March revived the condition of some crops across the country. However, persistent rains mainly in southern, eastern and north-eastern areas damaged some crops, for example through cob rot and sprouting of grains and pulses, reducing potential yields. The rains also increased road damage, negatively impacting transport services in many areas. The start of the 2026 tobacco marketing season in early March is expected to improve income opportunities for tobacco-producing households and others. However, prices are at least 20 percent lower than last year, according to the Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board . If prices remain lower, this will likely result in below-average incomes from tobacco sales and negatively affect income and access to food and non-food items in tobacco-producing areas. Following global fuel supply chain disruptions because of the Middle East conflict, effective March 18, the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority increased petrol and diesel prices by 39 percent and 34 percent, respectively, compared to the February prices. As a result, public transport fares immediately increased by between 50 and 100 percent. Production and transportation costs have also gone up, given that fuel is a key component in many sectors. Bread prices went up by 10 percent during the month. According to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency , the monthly ZWG, USD, and blended headline inflation increased by 0.4 percent from February to March. The modest increase , following several months of stability, reflects inflationary pressures driven by fuel price increases. Prices of basic food and other commodities and services are also expected to increase over the coming months because of the conflict, further eroding the purchasing power of low-income households and decreasing their ability to access adequate food. Shortages and price increases for fertilizers are also likely, which in the short-term may negatively impact agricultural production. Seasonal casual labor activities during the harvest in April and May and post-harvest period are likely to remain below average in most areas , partly due to the impact of unfavorable rainfall distribution during the October 2025 to March 2026 rainy season. However, above-average surface and groundwater levels will likely support post-harvest livelihood activities such as horticulture, brick making, and construction. Enhanced hay, fodder, and silage production, especially in typically drier southern areas, is expected to support supplementary livestock feeding and above-average livestock conditions. However, livestock diseases in localized areas, such as foot and mouth disease in some southern border districts, may affect livestock sales and incomes, especially for cattle.
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