Sudan Climate Analysis in The Context of Conflict (December 2025)

Country: Sudan Source: IMPACT Initiatives Please refer to the attached file. Context & Rationale Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing East Africa, where countries like Sudan are increasingly exposed to rising temperatures, recurrent droughts, and extreme weather events. Despite contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, Sudan remains one of the most climate‐vulnerable countries in East Africa, facing severe water stress, high rainfall variability, and expanding desertification that threaten food security and livelihoods.1 Multiple vulnerability indices classify Sudan among the countries most at risk from climate variability and climate change. Pastoral and agro‐pastoral communities rely on natural rangelands, mobility, and livestock assets as core livelihood pillars.2 Sudan’s livestock sector remains a cornerstone of the national economy, accounting for 34% of agricultural GDP and providing 40% of total employment. This underscores the continuing importance of pastoral and agro‐pastoral livelihoods.3 The increasing occurrence of droughts and heightened rainfall variability in recent decades have significantly strained rain-fed agricultural and pastoral systems, which constitute the main sources of livelihood for rural populations. Empirical reports indicate that Sudan has experienced considerable variability in rainfall, a rise in average temperatures, an increased incidence of flooding, and recurrent drought events, all of which have exerted substantial adverse effects on agricultural production. Deficient rainfall and droughts reduce soil moisture, disrupt planting and harvesting schedules, and limit water availability for crops and livestock, resulting in lower yields and increased food insecurity. Conversely, excessive rainfall and flooding can destroy crops, cause water logging, accelerate soil erosion, and damage agricultural infrastructure.5 In addition to climate challenges, armed conflict has severely disrupted farming activities in Sudan with cascading effects across all pillars of food and nutrition security. These repeated shocks erode community coping capacity and weaken anticipatory action, threatening the stability of food systems over time. Violence leads to the displacement of farmers, destruction of infrastructure, restricted access to cropland, and limited availability of agricultural inputs.7 Darfur, Blue Nile, and South Kordofan experience recurrent droughts, erratic rainfall, and prolonged conflict, leading to displacement, crop loss, and reduced livestock production. Gedaref, the country’s breadbasket, is primarily affected by rainfall fluctuations and occasional flooding, impacting sorghum, sesame, and sunflower production. Overall, the dual pressures of climate anomalies and conflict threaten agricultural productivity, rural livelihoods, and food security. Violence leads to the displacement of farmers, destruction of infrastructure, restricted access to cropland, and limited availability of agricultural inputs.7 Darfur, Blue Nile, and South Kordofan experience recurrent droughts, erratic rainfall, and prolonged conflict, leading to displacement, crop loss, and reduced livestock production. Gedaref, the country’s breadbasket, is primarily affected by rainfall fluctuations and occasional flooding, impacting sorghum, sesame, and sunflower production. Overall, the dual pressures of climate anomalies and conflict threaten agricultural productivity, rural livelihoods, and food security. Key Messages • Climate variability in Sudan has intensified, with alternating cycles of drought and flooding. Short and long‐term Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analyses show near‐normal rainfall in 2023, extreme wet conditions and widespread flooding in 2024, and mixed but moderate anomalies in 2025. These patterns highlight a growing climate instability that affects water availability, soil moisture, and agricultural productivity. • Key agricultural regions face increasing environmental stress, threatening Sudan’s food production. Areas such as Gedaref, Blue Nile, Sennar, and Darfur which fall under the rain-fed semi-mechanized zone show recurring drought signals and vegetation decline (Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)), while other regions experience chronic flooding. This variability directly affects cropland conditions and the livelihoods of farmers and agro‐pastoralists who rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture. • Conflict and climate shocks jointly undermine agricultural systems and rural livelihoods. Armed conflict has disrupted farming activities through displacement, loss of infrastructure, and reduced access to land, while climate extremes; droughts, erratic rainfall, and floods, further reduce yields of key crops such as sorghum and groundnuts. The combined pressure is worsening food insecurity across multiple states • Agriculture and livestock are core to Sudan’s economy, contributing 22% of GDP and supported by one of Africa’s largest livestock population

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