Country: Uganda Source: REACH Initiative Please refer to the attached file. Climate Hazards in Uganda’s Refugee-Hosting Districts. INTRODUCTION Uganda hosts one of the largest refugee populations in Africa,1 many of whom live in climate-sensitive landscapes highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, limited adaptive capacity, and high exposure to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and prolonged dry spells.2 Over recent decades, the country has experienced more frequent and intense climate hazards, undermining livelihoods, food security, health, and infrastructure.34 Uganda’s climate is characterized by a bimodal rainfall pattern; however, this pattern has become increasingly unpredictable, with delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall that disrupts agricultural cycles.5 during key agricultural seasons. According to the Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment (MSNA), conducted by IMPACT Initiatives in 2024, prolonged dry spells and heavy rains are the hazard types most frequently reported across West Nile and Southwestern regions. With accelerating climate change, they will remain dominant hazards, alongside a growing risk of flash flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas.6 Key Messages Kamwenge District currently receives ~1,077 mm of annual rainfall, projected to rise moderately to ~ 1,218 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, persistent dry-season deficits and higher evapotranspiration will intensify water stress, especially in areas like Nkomo, Bihanga and Kabambiro. Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.2-2.8oC during the hottest and driest quarters, increasing the risk of droughts, heat stress and the frequency of very hot days across agricultural and settlement areas Droughts remains a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which capture rainfall deficits and vegetation stress respectively, showing severe dryness across Biguli, Nkoma, and Bihanga leading to vegetation stress, reduced crop yields, and limited pasture and water availability. Flood risk is highly localized, with the greatest concentration of inundation occurring in river catchments like the Mpanga and Katonga river parts of the district.
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