Iran: ACLED Regional Overview Middle East: April 2026

Countries: Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen Source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Please refer to the attached file. On the heels of the US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement, ACLED experts detail the impacts in the region, including in Lebanon, the Gulf, Yemen, Israel, and Iraq — and their outlook on what's to come. Authors Luca Nevola Senior Analyst, Yemen and the Gulf Nasser Khdour Middle East Assistant Research Manager Muaz Al Abdullah Middle East Research Manager Gulf: Iranian retaliatory strikes target energy infrastructure Since the onset of the conflict, Iranian retaliatory strikes have spared no Gulf country, targeting US facilities, energy infrastructure — including oil fields and processing sites — as well as ports, airports, residential areas, and landmarks, resulting in over 660 events and at least 41 people killed. The United Arab Emirates is the country most heavily targeted and has suffered the largest share of successful impacts, while Kuwait recorded the highest number of casualties. Oman, which maintains close diplomatic channels with Tehran, was the least targeted. Overall, Iranian attacks on the Gulf have declined: Average daily attacks in week five of the war dropped significantly compared to the first week. In the same period, the proportion of strikes that were intercepted increased from 46% to over 70%, reflecting a reduced number of attacks and increased predictability of Iranian targeting. However, strikes specifically targeting Gulf energy infrastructure followed a retaliatory pattern — peaking both at the onset of the conflict and after Israeli strikes on Tehran refineries on 7 March and South Pars on 18 March. They then dropped after US President Donald Trump announced that negotiations were ongoing. In a later escalation toward the end of the month, the Iranian regime targeted aluminum factories in Bahrain and the UAE, in retaliation for Israeli strikes on steel plants in Iran. In the week leading up to the declaration of the ceasefire on 8 April, attacks intensified in the Gulf. Iranian strikes hit a desalination and power plant and the al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait, and a data center in Bahrain. The conflict prompted several Gulf states to tighten domestic security. Waves of arrests in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE targeted individuals allegedly linked to the Axis of Resistance. Authorities in Qatar and the UAE also detained civilians for filming and sharing footage of Iranian strikes, while Bahrain carried out arrests linked to expressions of support for Iran, amid pro-Iran protests and demands to remove foreign military bases. 1 Iranian strikes harden GCC stance toward Tehran Yemen and the Gulf Senior Analyst Luca Nevola In the face of Iran’s sustained attacks, Gulf states have prioritized defense and damage control, advocating for an end to the war and a return to the status quo to preserve long-term coexistence with Iran. 2 This stance and accompanying reluctance to engage Iran militarily has persisted despite mounting economic costs. Projections suggest that, should the conflict continue through April, Qatar and Kuwait could see GDP contractions of up to 14%, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE may face declines of around 3% and 5%, respectively. 3 Yet, Israel’s strike on the South Pars gas field — shared by Iran and Qatar 4 — and Iran’s subsequent targeting of Gulf energy infrastructure marked a turning point in this approach. Iran’s retaliation on Gulf energy infrastructure on 18 and 19 March included a major strike on the Pearl GTL facility in Ras Laffan that knocked out roughly 17% of Qatar’s energy exports. 5 The escalation prompted a diplomatic rupture between Doha and Tehran, 6 pushing Qatar to step back from direct mediation and leaving Oman as the Gulf state most actively engaged in diplomacy. 7 Speculation over possible Gulf intervention — particularly by the UAE and Kuwait — intensified after Trump issued a two-day ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on 21 March. But Iran met the US’ threats to target Iranian power plants with warnings of symmetrical retaliation against the Gulf, pushing Washington toward negotiations. Gulf states continue to favor de-escalation, and met the declaration of a two-week ceasefire on 8 April positively, even if the extent of Iran’s concessions remains unclear. Diplomatic statements welcomed the ceasefire as a positive development, but emphasized the return of the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the cessation of attacks not only by Iran, but its proxies too. 8 However, the Gulf’s position hardened in the run-up to the ceasefire announcement. There is growing convergence around the need to secure meaningful concessions from Tehran — particularly on its nuclear program, long-range capabilities, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. 9 Some countries, like Qatar, even began demanding reparations from Iran for attacks targeting them, hinting at the Gulf’s intention to extract their own c

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