Somalia Key Message Update: Humanitarian needs peak as economic and security conditions deteriorate, March - September 2026

Country: Somalia Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages While economic disruptions from increased conflict in the Middle East are of high concern for Somalia in the short to medium term, FEWS NET does not assess any immediate impacts on projected area-level food security outcomes. Area-level food security outcomes are already very severe; Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected in northern, central, and Juba pastoral areas through May, with pockets of households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Improvements to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected by June in Juba Pastoral - Cattle and Goats Livelihood Zone . However, northern and central pastoral areas will remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through September after consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, increased livestock deaths, negligible milk production, and near-record high food and water prices. As clan conflicts over scarce resources escalate and social support systems become overstretched, many poor households will likely resort to selling productive animals or even begging to mitigate their widening food consumption deficits. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with pockets of households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), are expected in Bay and Bakool agropastoral areas through May following crop failures, an atypically hot and dry January-March jilaal dry season, and surging food and water prices. From June to September, only limited area-level improvements to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected despite near-average green and main harvests, as debt repayments and persistently above-average food prices weigh heavily on poor households. Herd sizes and milk availability will remain low, limiting access to saleable animals and supplemental food and income. Other agropastoral areas with better livestock migration options, greater herd sizes, or proximity to Mogadishu markets are expected to sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May and improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between June and September. Most major internally displaced persons (IDP) settlements will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through September, with pockets of recently displaced IDPs facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes. Humanitarian assistance levels are extremely low and will be insufficient to improve area-level outcomes, except in Dhuusamarreeb, where Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected through May. Minimal to no humanitarian assistance is expected from June following an anticipated pipeline break in April. While food prices will likely ease from June as green harvesting begins, informal labor opportunities tend to decrease during the rainy season, worsening food access. Acute malnutrition is also expected to worsen as waterborne illnesses increase seasonally. IDPs remain a population of highest concern, especially recently displaced households, as they have extremely limited livelihood options, minimal access to social support, and are market dependent and highly exposed to price shocks. Somalia faces multifaceted risks from escalating Middle East conflict due to heavy dependence on imported fuel and food and livestock exports to Gulf markets. Rising global energy prices and shipping disruptions are sharply increasing fuel and freight costs and delaying imports. Between February and March, imported diesel and rice prices in the port market of Bossaso increased by 35 and 17 percent, respectively. Larger increases are expected to have occurred or materialize soon in interior markets. Trade disruptions also threaten Somalia’s sizeable livestock exports through higher shipping costs and delays, which are undermining pastoral incomes, market liquidity, and foreign exchange ahead of the April-May peak demand period before the Hajj and Eid al-Adha. While there are reports of limited cooperation between Al-Shabaab and the Houthis, a coordinated effort to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait or launch sustained attacks on Red Sea commercial traffic is not likely at this time; impacts to Somalia are likely from the broader regional conflict. Political instability continues to fuel rising conflict and insecurity, most recently in Southwest State. In recent weeks, over 50,000 people reportedly fled from Baidoa, the state’s capital. Escalating clashes between federal government forces, state forces, and al-Shabaab are severely disrupting trade and the resumption of agricultural activities in the country’s primary cereal-producing zone. Though Baidoa remains the focal point of increased instability, the consequences are widespread because the city is a key regional market and administrative hub. Roadblocks, extortion and illegal taxation, and suspended flights are constraining market supply, raising transport costs, reducing access to agricultural and pastoral lands, and impeding humanitarian access across Bay and Bakool regions. In March, dry conditions persisted across most of the country, but light to modera

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