Niger - Key Message Update: Multiple shocks, including conflict, continue to constrain poor households’ food access, March - September 2026

Country: Niger Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes continue in the regions of Tillabéry, Diffa, and northwestern Tahoua, largely due to conflict, but also as a result of recurring flooding and an unfavorable economic context. Food needs are currently increasing and are expected to peak during the lean season from July to September 2026, driven by stock depletion, dependence on markets, and peak food prices. Displaced populations and very poor host households in these regions are the most affected by Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Smaller population groups, whose livelihoods have been further compromised by flood-related crop and asset losses, as well as food inflation, are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The deterioration of the security situation, with increasing insecurity in conflict hotspots, is the main driver of acute food insecurity. According to ACLED, the overall number of security incidents increased by an average of 14 percent in January-February 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, with increases of 33 percent, 50 percent, and 86 percent recorded in the regions of Dosso, Maradi, and Tahoua, respectively. Violence against civilians has led to population displacements estimated at 1,032,135 people in February 2026: 53 percent are internally displaced persons; 42 percent are refugees from Mali, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso fleeing terrorist attacks; and 5 percent are other individuals registered in the country. These security tensions increase pressure on host communities and their food conditions, while disrupting market functioning and supply, livelihood activities, and limiting access to land for off-season farming. Insecurity also disrupts transhumance, causing atypical concentrations and overcrowding of livestock, leading to heavy pressure on local pastoral resources and reduced livestock productivity in insecure areas. Economic conditions are also unfavorable in conflict-affected areas. Local employment opportunities are limited in these zones, significantly affecting household incomes and purchasing power. Although overall inflation declined by 10.1 percent in February 2026 compared to February 2025, food prices are rising in conflict areas. In insecure areas such as Bankilaré and Mangaïsé in the Tillabéry Region, average millet prices reached 290 FCFA/kg in February 2026, compared to a national average of 221 FCFA/kg. The off-season agricultural season — dominated by irrigated fruit and vegetable production, including rice, peppers, onions, and other market garden crops — offers important opportunities for diversifying food consumption and provides income sources for poor households through agricultural labor. Production trends are similar to last year. However, reduced cultivated areas due to insecurity — particularly in the production basins of Tillabéry and Diffa — have led to lower labor demand, sustaining below-average daily wages. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to disrupt international markets, particularly through rising fuel, freight, and imported input costs. The direct impact on fuel prices may be mitigated by Niger’s status as an oil-producing country. However, the main impact is likely to be an increase in prices of imported food products, particularly rice, wheat, pasta, vegetable oil, and sugar, reducing access for households, especially urban and market-dependent ones. At the same time, the expected increase in fertilizer prices is likely to limit farmers’ access to inputs, particularly for irrigated systems. Input supply for the 2026 agricultural season (January-May) depends largely on imports from Nigeria, Morocco, and Russia. A likely reduction in fertilizer use for the upcoming season could negatively affect yields and agricultural production, increasing dependence on markets and further driving food price pressures. However, increased use of organic fertilizers and local supply sources could help reduce reliance on imports and partially support agricultural production. Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Niger Key Message Update March - September 2026: Multiple shocks, including conflict, continue to constrain poor households’ food access, 2026.

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