Country: Burkina Faso Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected to persist in Karo-Peli Province through May. Food assistance provided in March covers at least 50 percent of the needs of half of the population. Given the absence of own-produced stocks from the rainy season harvest, reliance on insufficient quantities of vegetables produced in accessible areas, and weak incomes limiting access to cereals on the market, this assistance is helping prevent extreme food consumption deficits. As the supply of market garden products declines between June and September, households will increasingly rely on seasonally available wild foods. Marginal incomes from water and firewood sales, artisanal gold mining, and remittances from relatives will be insufficient to purchase staple foods at high prices. In the absence of assistance, households will face significant consumption gaps, exposing them to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes during this period. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected in Djelgodji and Yagha provinces between March and May 2026. Food access has improved in Djelgodji Province with the availability of staple foods on the market following the arrival of a convoy in late February. However, high prices prevent households from accessing adequate food despite income from market gardening, remittances, and water and firewood sales. Ongoing food distributions cover at least 75 percent of household food needs. In Yagha Province, limited own-produced stocks and low incomes also prevent households from achieving adequate consumption. However, assistance continues to reduce major deficits by covering at least 50 percent of needs of more than 25 percent of households. Between June and September, household consumption is expected to deteriorate in both provinces due to reduced availability of market garden products and insufficient incomes for cereal purchases. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected, with households increasingly relying on wild foods and reducing the number of meals. Overall, increased supply of cereal products and export restrictions continue to support favorable market conditions, with average prices in February lower than both last year and the five-year average. However, supply constraints persist in areas facing significant security challenges. Price variations of 10-20 percent above average are observed in Arbinda and Gorom-Gorom, while weak supply and high transport costs are driving atypical price increases, particularly for millet (by 46 and 89 percent in the markets of Sebba and Gayéri, respectively). Market gardening harvests peaked in March. Tomatoes and onions are the main crops, with a stronger emphasis on onion production. Overall, harvests are above the five-year average due to increased area planted, including in accessible zones within high-insecurity areas. Producer incomes are also expected to exceed last year’s levels due to relatively higher prices. In February, tomato prices nearly doubled, driven by demand from the local industry. Onion prices also increased by around 15 percent in major production areas. In the short term, the conflict in the Middle East is not expected to have an immediate impact on fuel availability and prices, given the currently adequate level of strategic reserves ( RTB ). However, if disruptions to maritime trade routes and rising freight costs persist, medium-term effects on the availability and prices of fuel, fertilizers, and imported food products are likely. In a context of strong dependence on imports and coastal supply corridors, increases in fuel and international transport costs are expected to gradually transmit to domestic markets. A sustained increase in global oil prices could prompt the government to raise domestic fuel prices, with knock-on effects on transport costs and, ultimately, food prices. Fertilizer imports continue through the Burkinabè Company for Agricultural and Pastoral Inputs and Equipment (SOBIMAP), but current stocks (around 50,000 tons) fall far short of the estimated 300,000 tons needed to meet demand for the upcoming agricultural season. The input supply period for the 2026 season (January-May) is ongoing. Although major suppliers include Russia and Morocco ( IFDC ), tensions in international markets could reduce import volumes and sustain high domestic prices. Fertilizer-intensive crops, such as maize and cotton, may lead farmers to reduce area planted — especially as some are already facing lower prices (about 21 percent below the five-year average for maize since the harvest) — which would further reduce their incomes. Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Burkina Faso Key Message Update March - September 2026: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in the north and east amid the lean season, 2026.
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