Country: Chad Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected to persist between March and May 2026 in the provinces of Ennedi-East (Wadi Hawar), Wadi Fira (Dar Tama, Kobé), Ouaddaï (Assoungha), and Sila (Kimiti), and are likely to continue through September. Refugees, arriving without livelihoods, face large food consumption deficits and rely heavily on assistance, while host households experience deteriorating food access due to stock depletion, rising prices, and declining incomes. The influx of refugees disrupts labor and income opportunities for poor households, increasing the risk of further deterioration in food security. A growing proportion of households could fall into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in some eastern areas, although this proportion is estimated to remain below 15 percent of the population. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through September in Lac Province. Attacks by armed groups continued in February 2026, displacing 1,250 people and further degrading fishing and livestock livelihoods, which, combined with high food prices, are leading to consumption deficits among displaced populations and host communities. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand between June and September 2026 to the provinces of Kanem and Barh El Gazel , where stock depletion, declining income from gathering, and heavy reliance on markets — combined with high transport costs — will further limit food access for poor households. The influx of refugees and returnees continues in the east. As of March 16, 2026, a cumulative total of 918,260 refugees have newly arrived since April 2023 in eastern provinces, mainly concentrated in Ennedi East (52 percent), followed by Wadi Fira (32 percent), increasing pressure on resources at border entry points. The security context is deteriorating following a drone attack on March 18, 2026 in Tiné, which caused at least 17 civilian deaths. These factors are increasing market demand and pressure on local livelihoods and host community resources. Markets remain generally well supplied, but low incomes, stock depletion, and strong market dependence are limiting food access for poor households . In February 2026, cereal prices were generally stable or slightly increasing compared to January, except for millet. Millet prices decreased by 3 percent compared to January and remain 13 percent below the five-year average. However, localized increases in millet prices (11 to 28 percent) in Ennedi-East, Ennedi-West, and Borkou are linked to refugee influxes and high transport costs. Across all monitored markets, imported rice prices show an average increase of 62 percent compared to the five-year average, exceeding 100 percent in several eastern markets, where border insecurity and rising fuel prices disrupt supply. The conflict in the Middle East represents a major external shock likely to worsen food access for poor households in Chad through increased fuel, transport, and imported food costs. Chad is an oil-exporting country, and rising global oil prices could increase public revenues; however, structural constraints in the sector will limit the transmission of these gains to the broader economy and households. Fuel prices — which already increased by more than 40 percent during 2025 — are expected to continue rising, increasing transport costs. As a landlocked country dependent on regional trade corridors, particularly through Cameroon, any increase in fuel and logistics costs is likely to quickly translate to higher prices for imported goods. Additionally, potential disruptions to remittances from the Chadian diaspora in Gulf countries could affect household incomes, reducing their ability to access food. A prolonged conflict would therefore sustain upward pressure on prices of imported commodities — particularly rice, wheat, and vegetable oil — while eroding livelihoods and purchasing power for market-dependent households. Disruptions in international trade and rising energy prices, particularly in Gulf countries that play a key role in nitrogen fertilizer production, are expected to drive up prices and reduce fertilizer availability. On average, the use of imported fertilizers in Chad is concentrated in rice (30 percent) and cotton (70 percent). Fertilizer imports rely on the private sector for 40 percent of the volume and on state-subsidized mechanisms managed by the National Rural Development Agency (ANADER) for the remainder. Given that the input supply period for the 2026 agricultural season is underway (January-May), including the start of planting in April in the Sudanian zone, disruptions in international trade could reduce fertilizer use by farmers, compromising yields of rice and cotton, which are primarily cultivated in this zone. Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Chad Key Message Update March - September 2026: Refugee influx and insecurity are sustaining Cris
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