World: Food Security Monitor - March 2026

Country: World Source: AGRA Please refer to the attached file. Food Commodity Prices Updates Eastern Africa's staple food markets show mixed month‐on‐month movements, reflecting post‐harvest supply shifts and steady cross‐border trade, but prices remain above annual averages due to high fuel costs, currency depreciation, and broader economic pressures. Maize prices are the most volatile, rising sharply in Uganda (+22%), South Sudan (+14%), and Ethiopia (+7.7%) amid tight supplies, while Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania record moderate declines from temporary easig. Rice markets diverge, with increases in South Sudan (+6.9%), Uganda, and Rwanda due to tightening conditions, contrasted by slight declines in Kenya and Tanzania on stable availability. Bean prices generally soften, notably in Tanzania (−4.4%) and Uganda (−4.9%), reflecting improved seasonal supply, though Kenya sees modest firming. Fertilizer prices adjust sharply downward in Uganda—NPK (−59.7%) and DAP (−22.8%)—following improved availability, easing earlier geo political supply fears, even as year‐on‐year staple prices remain elevated across the region. However, staple food prices across much of East Africa are expected to trend upward in the coming months, driven by tightening local supplies and sustained regional demand, with additional upward pressure stemming from rising fuel and freight costs linked to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. West Africa's staple food markets are easing monthonmonth, supported by post harvest supply recovery, import inflows, and seasonal normalization, though localized volatility persists. Maize prices fall sharply in Ghana (−13.8%) and Togo (−8.1%), remain broadly stable in Nigeria (+1.2%), and are substantially lower year on year, particularly in Ghana (−54.2%), reflecting a strong adjustment from last year's elevated levels. Rice prices also soften widely, led by Ghana (−17%), with modest declines across Sahelian markets due to improved availability and steady trade flows. Millet prices show mixed short term movements, rising in Nigeria (+12%) and Burkina Faso (+3%), but remain well below last year's levels,while sorghum prices are stable to lower, declining in Ghana (−10%), Nigeria (−4%), and Mali (−3%). Overall, despite pockets of pressure linked to insecurity and early lean season dynamics, yearonyear price declines underscore improved supply conditions and partial market normalization across the region. Southern Africa's staple food markets continue to reflect generally abundant supply conditions and favourable harvest prospects, with prices easing across major producing countries over the medium to long term. This broad moderation is being driven by harvest progress, currency dynamics, and localized supply adjustments. In the short term, maize prices increased month on month in Malawi (+16%) and Mozambique (+6%) amid localized supply tightness, while Zambia remained broadly stable (−1%). Nevertheless, yearonyear prices are lower across all markets (−21% to −25%), indicating substantial normalization from last year's elevated levels, including in Zimbabwe, despite isolated market specific spikes. Fertilizer markets recorded the sharpest adjustments, most notably in Mozambique, where NPK prices declined by 53%, improving input affordability, although yearonyear fertilizer prices remain elevated in Malawi, reflecting ongoing macro economic pressures. With the onset of green harvests in parts of the region and the main harvest season expected from May, maize prices are projected to ease further. In the interim, lean season tightening is likely to persist in structurally deficit areas, though sizeable carryover stocks in Zambia and Tanzania should help limit upward price pressure. These supply driven gains may, however, be partially offset by rising fuel costs, which are expected to increase transport and marketing expenses in the near term.. Food Security Updates The escalation of the US-Iran conflict and its spillover across the Gulf has triggered a major systemic shock to global food systems, with Africa among the hardest hit regions. The effects on African agriculture are transmitted rapidly through globally interconnected supply chains, particularly energy, fertilizer, trade, and logistics networks. Sharp increases in global oil prices have pushed fuel costs upward across many African countries, raising the price of transportation, logistics,and agricultural production. Producers in South Africa report that diesel shortages are threatening the movement of goods, while Nigeria is experiencing fueldriven inflation. Similar spikes are evident across East and Southern Africa: Kenya's fuel prices rose by over 15% between February and March 2026, Tanzania's by 12%, Zambia's by 10%, Mozambique's by 13%, and Ethiopia's by 16%. These surges directly raise costs for land preparation, irrigation, processing, and distribution, core activities that underpin agricultural productivity. With the Middle East supp

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