Pakistan Food Security Outlook: The likely poor kharif harvest and elevated food prices drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3), June 2026 - January 2027

Country: Pakistan Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Balochistan Province through January 2027, where expected below-average monsoon rainfall and associated kharif harvest, degraded rangeland conditions, high prices, and trade disruptions with Afghanistan and Iran will likely constrain food and income access. Rabi food stocks are expected to begin depleting in October, increasing market reliance on food amid below-average agricultural labor opportunities and weak purchasing power. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) through the projection period. An anticipated below-average kharif harvest and early depletion of rabi food stocks are expected to increase market dependence amid constrained purchasing power. Starting in October, as wheat stocks deplete and food access constraints intensify, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand to more areas. The kharif harvest is expected to be below last year, driven by below-average area planted and monsoon rainfall. Land preparation and planting are currently underway and expected to conclude in late July or early August. The forecast below-average monsoon season will likely cause soil moisture stress in southern Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and Balochistan provinces. Food assistance needs in Pakistan are estimated to peak at 17.00-17.99 million people between December 2026 and January 2027, representing 5-10 percent of the total population. Balochistan and Sindh provinces are the areas of highest concern, where above-average staple food prices, driven by high fuel costs and trade disruptions with Afghanistan and Iran, are expected to constrain household access to income for food purchases. While the 2026 rabi harvest is expected to improve national food availability, poor households will most likely deplete wheat stocks earlier than normal and become market reliant starting in October, resulting in an increase in the population in need.

Read More