VCG/VCG via Getty ImagesBrent broke through past $100 a barrel again on Thursday as hopes faded for an durable US-Iran peace. The latest price surge has reopened the door for some dire predictions about what's next for oil. Some energy experts see Brent topping $150 a barrel if the conflict drags on.In just a matter of weeks, the worst-case scenario for oil has crept back into the conversation. The oil market is feeling intense whiplash, with hopes for a resolution with Iran breaking down after the latest tension. The price of Brent, the international benchmark, surged back above $100 a barrel on Thursday as investors took in reports of attacks on Saudi shipping vessels. Oil prices has been tumbling since May as markets gained confidence in a lasting peace deal with Iran following the April ceasefire agreement. The latest price surge signals that markets are again fearing disruptions to energy supply chains and potential knock-on effects, including higher inflation. The escalation has also reopened the door to some of the more dire scenarios for oil prices that were circulating earlier in the war.Here's how much higher forecasters think oil prices could go the second time around. Rapidan Energy: $110 a barrelExpected increase: +9%Bob McNally, a longtime energy analyst and the founder of Rapidan Energy, said oil prices could go as high as $110 a barrel in the coming weeks as supply pressures are felt more acutely.So far, the supply shortage stemming from the Iran war has been buffered by nations' reserves, but stockpiles are being depleted after nearly five months of the war. Oil stocks in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve have plummeted to their lowest level since 1983 in the last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.Demand from countries like China, which have been on a "crash diet" in recent months, is also starting to come back, McNally said.Markets would be "lucky" if strikes in the Middle East weren't directed at more important energy infrastructure, which would add to supply pressures, he said."One of the distinctive features of this whole thing has been an entrenched optimism among traders," McNally told Bloomberg this week. "I think that optimism is unwarranted and I think that bubble could burst. And if so, we're going to reprice much higher, I'm afraid."Previously, McNally told Business Insider he saw oil prices rising as high as $150 a barrel, Brent's peak during the last financial crisis.Goldman Sachs: $120 a barrelExpected increase: +19%Goldman analysts reiterated their base case that Brent crude would fall back to around $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter, but flagged the risk that prices could surpass $120 a barrel if the conflict persists through the end of the year, recapturing their peak from earlier in the war.If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted through 2027, oil prices may average $100 a barrel next year, with the potential to go even higher if flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal, two other critical passage points for oil in the Middle East, are also disrupted."We expect prices to hold most of their recent gains through July and August and global and OECD commercial stocks draw further for three reasons," a team led by Daan Struyven, Goldman's co-head of global commodities research, wrote in a note this week.HFI Research: $150 a barrelExpected increase: +49%HFI Research, a contrarian energy research firm, reiterated its bear case that oil prices could rise as high as $150 a barrel in several notes this week.The firm pointed to wider crack spreads as a signal that the oil market could tighten further in the coming weeks. The 3-2-1 crack spread — an industry benchmark that reflects refiners' profits from refining 3 barrels of crude into 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of distillate fuel — is at a record $70 per bundle, equivalent to around $23 per barrel, the firm wrote on Substack last week.Spreads that high suggest both oil and oil products are "mispriced," the firm said, adding that flows coming out of the Strait of Hormuz have also slowed "to a trickle" in recent weeks."At today's refining margins, we are already at $150/bbl. The very thing that the US is trying to prevent is happening regardless," the firm wrote.Read the original article on Business Insider
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