Postscript by Waziri Adio Since 2014, Osun State has produced some of the most keenly contested governorship elections in the country. But the Osun election is closely monitored not just because of its competitive nature or because other Nigerians care that much about who is the governor of the state in the South West hinterland. It is largely because the Osun election has acquired the character of a potential bellwether. As the last off-cycle poll before the general election, the conduct and the outcome of the Osun governorship election are scoured by politicians, political analysts and election monitors for what they portend. Beyond this, the state is also an active site for proxy battles. Leading politicians whose names are not on the ballot, including those not even registered to vote in the state, have high stakes in what happens in Osun. Osun governorship elections started taking on this outsized significance in the build-up to the landmark 2015 general election. The All Progressives Congress (APC) had emerged as a merger of the leading opposition parties in 2013, with a bridgehead in the South West as probably its most lethal threat to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). However, the PDP secured a stunning upset in the 21st June 2014 governorship election in Ekiti State, winning in all the 16 local councils of Ekiti and securing close to 60% of the valid votes. Buoyed by this upset, PDP was keen on flipping the much bigger Osun State in the 9th August 2014 election. Given the equally outsized role that governors can play in presidential elections, an upset in Osun would have been a major psychological blow to the emergent APC and a significant morale booster for the PDP ahead of the 2015 presidential election. So, a lot was riding on the Osun governorship election of that year, especially because of what had happened in Ekiti and also because Osun was the only southern state that the PDP presidential candidate, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, had lost in the 2011 presidential election. Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, the flagbearer of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2011, had polled 299, 711 votes in Osun (the only state he won) while Dr. Jonathan got 188, 409 votes. A repeat of the 2011 presidential results in 2015 would be unpalatable to PDP but savoury to APC. Both APC and PDP thus devoted significant attention and resources to getting over the line in the Osun governorship election of 2014. APC eventually won and handsomely too. Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, the incumbent but very vulnerable governor in that election, got a second term, the only Osun governor to have legally done so till date. As Osun State goes to the poll to elect its next governor on 15th August 2026, the pattern that emerged in 2014 and got solidified in two subsequent electoral cycles in the state still looms large. There are 14 governorship candidates on the ballot in Osun this time around. But it is squaring up to be a three-way race. This is likely to increase the keenness of the contest and magnify the role of interested parties. The three leading candidates are: Senator Ademola Adeleke, the incumbent governor, of Accord (previously of PDP from where he officially decamped on 9th December 2025); Mr. Bola Oyebamiji of APC; and Dr. Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The three of them are formidable candidates in their own right. Apart from being the incumbent, Adeleke, from Ede North LGA, comes from an established political family (his late brother was a governor and a senator and their father was a senator in the Second Republic). Salaam was the speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly for two terms and is a major politician from Ejigbo in Ejigbo LGA, one of the most populous councils in the state. Oyebamiji, who is from Ikire in Irewole LGA, was a banker, head of a federal agency and finance commissioner in the state for five years. Incidentally, all three were together in APC at some point. It is also noteworthy that all three are from Osun West senatorial district. Osun West has 10 local councils like each of Osun Central and Osun East and it boasts of major towns and vote centres like Iwo, Ede and Ejigbo. But Osun West has been roundly marginalised in governorship matters in Osun State in the Fourth Republic. Prior to 2022, Osun West had not produced a governor in the state. Chief Bisi Akande (four years), Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola (seven years) and Mr. Gboyega Oyetola (four years) are all from Osun Central while Aregbesola (eight years) is from Osun East. In 23 years, the governorship of the state was monopolised by Osun Central and Osun East while Osun West was totally frozen out. Adeleke is the first governor produced by Osun West since 1999 (though his older brother, Senator Isiaka Adeleke, was a governor for less than two years in the truncated Third Republic). A major boost for the younger Adeleke in 2018 and 202
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