By Tunde Rahman With just a few days before the August 15 Osun State governorship election, the political calculus is already shifting. The election is a two-way horse race between incumbent Governor Ademola Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke of the Accord Party and his challenger, the All Progressives Congress candidate, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji – popularly branded as AMBO. While no election is won on paper, three key factors – party structure, voter disenchantment with the incumbent, and the imperative of alignment with the centre – will likely determine where the pendulum swings. APC in Osun has spent the last two years rebuilding and recalibrating ward by ward. Typically, after an electoral loss, political parties’ structure tends to become amorphous. But after losing in 2022, APC did what losing parties rarely do: it stayed on the ground, with its key leaders and foot-soldiers turning themselves into irritant opposition to the Adeleke government. AMBO’s campaign has leveraged that structure. Local government chairmen, former House of Assembly members, former councillors, and youth leaders have been harmonised under one unit. That way, the party successfully mustered the support of its members as a collective. In a state where elections are often decided by 2,000–5,000 votes per LGA, that machinery matters. By contrast, the incumbent Governor Adeleke was hobbled and weakened by visible internal factions within his People’s Democratic Party, which led to his exit from the party. Even the Accord Party, to which he ran for refuge, suffered a leadership crisis and has been in and out of court. Also, the rift between the Governor’s camp and some federal lawmakers, leading to the exit of two Senators and some House of Representatives members from the PDP to the APC, has not healed, and it is showing in voter mobilisation. Governor Adeleke holds tight to civil servants who usually wield considerable influence in Osun elections. But he has lost control over the local councils, while the state chapter of the National Union of Road Transport Workers remains fragmented. The Adeleke administration came in on a wave of goodwill in 2022 spurred by the salary hangover from previous APC administrations. By early this year, however, that goodwill is being tested by allegations of maladministration, exemplified by nepotism, lopsided infrastructure distribution, inflated contracts, and poor-quality projects. After four years of the governor’s known shenanigans, voter allegiance is gradually changing. And Osun voters are known to be pragmatic. Oyebamiji rode into Osun State public service on a high note, joining the former Governor Rauf Aregbesola administration as Managing Director of the dying Omoluabi Investment Company, which he successfully recapitalised. He was later appointed Commissioner for Finance in the administration of Governor Isiaka Adegboyega Oyetola, who succeeded Aregbesola. The APC candidate stepped down as Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority to vie for the Osun governorship seat. He is positioning himself as the new alternative to Adeleke. Oyebamiji is a technocrat with private sector credentials. He promises to create jobs, revive agriculture, and ensure fiscal discipline. Next Saturday’s election is an off-cycle election, and in Nigeria, off-cycle elections are rarely isolated from Abuja, the seat of power, because all attention is focused on it. President Bola Tinubu’s APC controls the centre and most states, whose governors have unleashed intense voter mobilisation and a crackdown against Governor Adeleke. Also, the Renewed Hope Agenda has, as expected, turned into a campaign frame in Osun, offering more federal projects, more roads, more student loans, and more support for sub-nationals that align with the centre. For swing voters and traditional rulers, it’s inconceivable that they would be indifferent to the array of federal projects being implemented in Osun State. Alignment with the federal government is increasingly being seen as access to resources and more Renewed Hope Agenda projects. That argument is resonating, especially in Osun West and Osun Central, where federal roads and health projects have been launched in 2026. Construction work is progressing on the Ibadan-Ife-Ilesa highway. Only last Thursday, the reconstruction of the Ibadan-Iwo-Osogbo road, a state road now taken over by Abuja, was inaugurated by the Minister of Works, Senator Dave Umahi, joined by former Osun governor and Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola. In my view, five major towns, including Osogbo, Ilesa, Ife, Iwo, and Ede, will decide this election. Osogbo is a swing, urban, and media-driven Local Government Area. Whoever wins the narrative here wins the momentum. Ilesa is APC’s traditional base. Turnout wil
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