With campaign activities concluded and the electorate voting today for a governor, the contest has moved beyond the noise of rallies, endorsements and political promises. What remains is the hard arithmetic of voter mobilisation and the capacity of the leading parties to translate their structures into ballots. Fifteen candidates are on the ballot, but the election has developed into a three-way contest among Governor Ademola Adeleke of Accord, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress, APC and Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress, ADC. Each represents a distinct political proposition. Adeleke is campaigning for continuity on a new platform. Oyebamiji is seeking to return the APC to power, while Salaam is presenting the ADC as an alternative to the two dominant political blocs. That the three frontrunners come from Osun West Senatorial District adds an intriguing dimension to the election. Adeleke is from Ede, Oyebamiji comes from Ikire, and Salaam hails from Ejigbo. Rather than producing a regional consensus, their candidacies will divide the district and could make Osun Central and Osun East the ultimate deciders. Adeleke and the power of incumbency Adeleke enters the election with the strongest advantage available to any candidate: incumbency. He controls the machinery of government, enjoys extensive name recognition and has spent almost four years building political relationships across the state. His campaign has been based on infrastructure and workers’ welfare. His supporters point to roads and community projects across the three senatorial districts as evidence of performance. He also appears to retain significant support among civil servants and labour leaders. However, Adeleke’s political journey to Accord remains one of the election’s biggest experiments. He won in 2022 on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP but abandoned it following prolonged internal crises. His ability to transfer his supporters to Accord demonstrates the extent to which Nigerian politics is increasingly driven by personalities rather than political parties or ideology. The PDP’s failure to field a candidate has helped Adeleke. Many of the grassroots operatives who worked for his victory four years ago have followed him to Accord. Defections by some loyalists of Iyiola Omisore from the APC have equally expanded the governor’s coalition. Yet incumbency also means that Adeleke must defend his record. Allegations of favouritism in recruitment, criticism of his administration’s performance in agriculture, healthcare and industrial development, and complaints over the disengagement of workers employed by the previous government provide ammunition for his opponents. The election is, therefore, not merely a popularity contest for Adeleke. It is a referendum on his first term. Oyebamiji and the APC machine Oyebamiji’s greatest strength is the formidable APC structure behind him. The party controls the Federal Government and enjoys the support of President Bola Tinubu, governors, federal appointees and influential political actors within Osun. His experience as commissioner for finance and managing director of the National Inland Waterways Authority allows him to present himself as a technocrat with knowledge of public finance. His “Prosperity Agenda” promises fiscal discipline, employment, investment, improved healthcare, infrastructure and poverty reduction. The movement of Senator Francis Fadahunsi, Wole Oke, Sanya Omirin and Taofeek Ajilesoro into the APC has also strengthened Oyebamiji’s prospects in Osun East. Their influence in Ijesaland and Ile-Ife could help the party recover areas where Adeleke performed strongly in 2022. In Osun Central, the APC is relying on its National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, and other prominent figures to deliver Osogbo and Olorunda. With Osogbo holding the highest number of registered voters, victory in the state capital could significantly shape the final result. Oyebamiji, however, carries the burden of the APC’s previous record. His service under the administrations of Rauf Aregbesola and Gboyega Oyetola links him to the controversial modulated salary policy and unpaid workers’ entitlements. He must persuade civil servants and pensioners that his government would not revive the difficulties associated with that period. He also carries the burden of the ill will associated with the APC at the federal level. Federal support may strengthen a candidate, but Osun voters have previously demonstrated their willingness to resist powerful political establishments. Oyebamiji must win their trust, not merely display the size of his party’s machinery. Salaam and the third-force proposition Salaam is the candidate capable of disrupting the calculations of both Accord and APC. A former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, he offers
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