Suleiman Yahyah West Africa is no longer in a phase of energy potential. We are in a phase of energy system construction. For decades, the conversation about West Africa’s energy future has centred on what the region possesses: oil and gas reserves, significant renewable energy potential, growing electricity demand, a young and rapidly urbanising population, and strategic access to international markets. But resources alone do not create prosperity. The question before us now is whether West Africa can build the market architecture capable of converting those resources into sustained economic value, deeper regional trade, greater investment and, most importantly, better lives for our people. And I want to suggest a clear answer: We can — but only if we think in systems, not projects. Individual refineries matter. Pipelines matter. Power plants matter. Transmission lines matter. Storage facilities matter. But their true economic value emerges when they become components of an integrated market. That is the opportunity before us. $3 TRILLION MARKET OPPORTUNITY I propose a simple but ambitious framing: By 2035, West Africa should aim to generate at least $3 trillion in cumulative energy market transaction value. Not as a fundraising target. Not as a valuation exercise. But as a measure of market depth, liquidity, integration and economic activity. A large energy market is not defined merely by the amount of oil, gas or electricity it produces. It is defined by how efficiently energy can move from where it is produced to where it is needed; how easily buyers and sellers can transact; how reliably infrastructure can be accessed; how effectively capital can be mobilised; and how confidently investors can operate across borders. Today, we can already see the imbalance. Regional refined-product demand has grown from approximately 370,000 barrels per day in 2000 to nearly one million barrels per day today. Yet only a handful of countries have meaningful refining capacity. Similarly, only a relatively small proportion of electricity is traded across borders despite thousands of kilometres of interconnection infrastructure and the existence of regional power-market institutions. Put together, these realities tell one story: The physical system is ahead of the commercial system. We have infrastructure corridors, but insufficiently integrated markets. We have energy resources, but fragmented systems for monetising them. We have demand, but not enough mechanisms for efficiently matching supply with that demand across borders. That is the gap we must close. And closing it could unlock an entirely different economic trajectory for West Africa. MARKET ARCHITECTURE We should stop thinking of West Africa as a collection of fragmented national energy systems. We should begin thinking of it as a single integrated energy market with distributed infrastructure. I propose a Hub–Node–Spoke model. Lagos can serve as an Atlantic liquidity and refining hub. Abidjan can function as a western commercial and logistics hub. Ghana can provide an important central balancing and storage node. Senegal can serve as a north-western gateway node. From these anchors, we build spokes into the wider region — connecting producers, refineries, storage facilities, power markets, industrial centres, ports and consumers. This is not theoretical. It reflects existing trade flows, infrastructure corridors, population centres and emerging refining and power assets. The Abidjan–Lagos corridor alone provides a natural backbone for deeper integration across some of the region’s most economically significant markets. Our task is to convert geography into a functioning market system. That means making it easier for energy to cross borders, easier for capital to follow energy, easier for businesses to operate across jurisdictions, and easier for consumers and industries to access reliable and competitively priced energy. The objective is not to eliminate national energy systems; it is to make them interoperable. REGULATORY INTEGRATION No market of this scale can function effectively with fragmented regulation. But harmonisation does not mean uniformity; it means interoperability. I therefore propose a WARF Regulatory Passport System. Under such a framework, if a company, trader or infrastructure operator is licensed and compliant in one WARF jurisdiction, that certification should be progressively recognised across participating jurisdictions, subject to agreed standards and safeguards. This would be supported by common product specifications, shared data standards, model energy contracts, transparent infrastructure-access rules and a regional dispute-resolution framework. The principle is simple: Regulate nationally. Transact regionally. This approach would reduce duplication, shorten transaction times, improve regulatory certainty and lower the cost of doing busi
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