The expansion of Osun State’s electorate and the increase in the number of voters who participated in the 2026 governorship election may have made retail vote buying less effective, according to an analysis by the Athena Election Observatory (AEO). The observatory’s preliminary assessment of the August 15 election shows that the number of registered voters rose from 1,952,387 in the 2022 governorship election to 2,339,544 in 2026, representing a 19.8 per cent increase. At the same time, accredited voters rose from 827,218 to 1,010,684, while total votes cast increased from 823,124 to 1,005,800. The figures indicate that the number of people who actually participated in the election expanded alongside the voter register, creating a larger and more difficult electorate for political actors attempting to influence individual voters through cash or other inducements. The AEO said the growth in the active electorate introduced greater uncertainty and increased the cost of attempting to manipulate voters on a retail basis. “Substantial electorate growth mitigates retail vote buying,” the observatory said in its preliminary assessment, explaining that the combination of a rapidly expanding voting population and a broadly stable accreditation rate could reduce the effectiveness of attempts to buy individual votes.” The accreditation rate moved only marginally from 42.37 per cent in 2022 to 43.20 per cent in 2026. This means that the increase in votes cast was not simply the result of a dramatic change in the proportion of registered voters who turned up. Rather, the size of the registered electorate itself expanded considerably, while participation also increased. Register expands by nearly 400,000 voters The most striking change in the AEO’s comparison is the expansion of the voter register. Osun had 1,952,387 registered voters in 2022. By 2026, the figure had risen to 2,339,544, adding 387,157 voters to the register over four years. That represents a 19.8 per cent increase. The expansion matters because vote buying generally operates at the individual or household level. A political actor seeking to influence an election by purchasing votes must identify willing voters, mobilise them and ensure that the transaction translates into actual votes. A larger electorate increases the number of voters that would have to be reached to produce a decisive effect across the state. The AEO therefore argued that the expanded electorate made retail manipulation more difficult and potentially more expensive. “This combination of a rapidly expanding active voting population and stable accreditation rates suggests that a larger, competitively mobilised electorate dilutes the efficacy of retail voter manipulation on election day,” the observatory said. The assessment does not mean vote buying disappeared from the election. Reports from the field showed that vote trading remained a concern in some locations. There were several reports of vote trading at polling units during the election. The significance of the AEO analysis is therefore different: it suggests that even where individual voters were targeted, the sheer scale and competitiveness of participation could make retail inducement less capable of determining the overall outcome. More voters actually cast ballots The growth becomes more significant when measured against the number of accredited voters and total votes cast. Accredited voters increased from 827,218 in 2022 to 1,010,684 in 2026. That represents an increase of 183,466 accredited voters, or about 22.2 per cent. Total votes cast also increased from 823,124 to 1,005,800, an increase of 182,676 votes, or about 22.2 per cent. In other words, more than one million voters participated in the 2026 election according to the AEO’s preliminary dataset. That larger pool of voters potentially changed the economics of vote buying. Where fewer voters participate, a relatively small number of purchased votes can have a greater influence on the final result, particularly in a closely contested election. But as participation expands, political actors face a larger and more dispersed voting population, making it harder to rely on small-scale inducement to secure an election-wide advantage. The AEO described the phenomenon as a dilution effect rather than an elimination of vote buying. Its assessment said the “rapidly expanding active voting population” combined with stable accreditation rates could reduce the effectiveness of retail voter manipulation. Participation increased without a major turnout-rate jump The data also provides an important qualification. Although the number of voters increased substantially, the accreditation rate did not rise by a comparable margin. In 2022, accredited voters represented 42.37 per cent of registered voters. In 2026, the figure stood at 43.20 per cent. That is an increase of only 0.83 percentage points. The distinction is important for un
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