From his Lagos home, elder statesman and respected business leader, Chief F.E. Ojugbana, reflects on Nigeria’s economic direction with the perspective of a man who has witnessed several chapters of the nation’s political and economic history. For Chief Ojugbana, the economic reforms of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, though accompanied by significant adjustment pains, are beginning to lay foundations for a more productive, investment-driven and self-reliant Nigerian economy. At the centre of this emerging industrial story, he argues, is the remarkable expansion of indigenous private enterprise, exemplified by Africa’s foremost industrialist, Aliko Dangote, and the Dangote Group. ‘Nigeria is laying a new economic foundation’ Speaking on the state of the economy, Chief Ojugbana acknowledged the difficulties facing ordinary Nigerians but maintained that the country must also recognise the progress being made in restoring macroeconomic stability and strengthening confidence in the Nigerian economy. The Tinubu administration came into office confronting longstanding structural problems, including the enormous cost of fuel subsidies, foreign exchange distortions, weak government revenues and an economy heavily dependent on imported petroleum products. Its reforms have been difficult, but international assessments increasingly point to improvements in some of Nigeria’s underlying economic indicators. The International Monetary Fund, IMF, said in its 2026 assessment that reforms undertaken since 2023 have strengthened macroeconomic stability, rebuilt external buffers and improved the functioning of the foreign exchange market. The Fund estimated economic growth at 4.0 per cent in 2025 and projected 4.1 per cent growth in 2026. (IMF) Similarly, the World Bank, in its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, said Nigeria had made “meaningful progress” in restoring macroeconomic stability, noting stronger external and fiscal positions and resilient economic growth, even as it cautioned that household incomes had yet to recover fully and poverty remained high. (World Bank) Chief Ojugbana believes this distinction is important. Economic reform, he said, cannot ultimately be judged by statistics alone. Its success must eventually translate into employment, increased purchasing power, greater opportunities for young Nigerians and improved living standards. But, in his assessment, rebuilding the fundamentals is an essential first step. Tinubu’s reforms and renewed investor confidence One of the positive developments under the current administration has been the effort to create a more market-oriented economy capable of attracting domestic and international capital. The removal of costly subsidies, changes to the foreign exchange regime, greater fiscal discipline and efforts to improve government revenue have significantly altered Nigeria’s economic framework. The IMF has noted that investor confidence strengthened following the reforms, with Nigeria returning successfully to the Eurobond market and recording renewed portfolio inflows. (IMF) Nigeria’s external position has also shown improvement. According to the IMF, the country recorded a current-account surplus equivalent to 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2025, while gross international reserves rose from about $40 billion at the end of 2024 to $46 billion in 2025 and reached about $49 billion by the end of March 2026. (IMF eLibrary) For Chief Ojugbana, these developments provide grounds for cautious optimism. He stressed that government must now ensure that the improving macroeconomic picture reaches the marketplace, the household and the small business owner.’ Dangote: A Nigerian industrial success story Perhaps nowhere is Nigeria’s potential for industrial transformation more visible than in the extraordinary strides being recorded by Aliko Dangote and Dangote Industries Limited. Chief Ojugbana described Dangote’s industrial investments as a demonstration of what Nigerian enterprise can accomplish when ambition, capital, supportive policy and long-term commitment to the country come together. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery represents a particularly important turning point. For decades, Nigeria occupied the paradoxical position of being one of Africa’s major crude-oil producers while depending heavily on imported refined petroleum products. The emergence of large-scale domestic refining is helping to change that equation. The IMF has estimated that the refinery could improve Nigeria’s current account by around $5.5 billion through import substitution and increased exports, assuming the value added remains onshore. Its analysis also projected that the refinery could contribute a
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