Download logoSouth Sudan is moving towards its first national elections since independence while the political, security and human rights safeguards required for a peaceful and credible vote that delivers democratic change are largely absent, the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan warned today in its new Advisory. The Commission cautioned that elections held without a strategy for democratic consolidation and preventing national schisms could instead fuel renewed conflict and heighten the risk of atrocity crimes. In its Advisory, At the Brink: Preventing Atrocity Crimes and Safeguarding South Sudan’s Transition, the Commission finds that multiple risk factors for atrocity crimes are converging. Armed conflict has resumed in several parts of the country; inclusive politics being abandoned; civic space and constitutional safeguards have been weakened; accountability mechanisms remain largely absent; and significant sections of the population remain excluded from meaningful political participation. Without a return to genuine and inclusive dialogue, the political contest surrounding the elections risks deepening existing divisions rather than providing a peaceful means of resolving them. The Commission unequivocally supports the right of the people of South Sudan to participate freely in public affairs through genuine, peaceful and democratic elections, and to choose their government and representatives. Its concern is not whether elections should be held, but whether South Sudanese can exercise that right freely, safely and without fear, and in a manner that consolidates the democratic transformation of South Sudan. “South Sudanese have waited 15 years to cast their first ballots as citizens of an independent state. They have the right to choose their government through free, peaceful and democratic elections. They deserve an election that gives them a voice, not one that puts their lives at risk,” said Yasmin Sooka, Chair of the Commission. “A peaceful democracy cannot be built on a foundation of armed conflict, fear and exclusion. Yet the very safeguards designed to prevent a return to war are being dismantled as the country moves towards the ballot box.” Applying the UN Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes, the Commission finds that these risk factors are not isolated but mutually reinforcing. Renewed armed conflict, weakened institutions, entrenched impunity, exclusionary governance, corruption, shrinking civic space and inflammatory rhetoric are converging while mechanisms that could mitigate these risks — including ceasefire monitoring, independent justice institutions and inclusive political dialogue — have been weakened or suspended. “South Sudan is still in a transition intended to break cycles of violence and repression. Elections must not be allowed to create another violent battleground,” said Commissioner Barney Afako. “The peace agreement was designed to take the guns out of political competition and to build systems to ensure the stability and prosperity of South Sudan. Instead, the guns are returning while the safeguards for peaceful political competition are disappearing. That is a profoundly dangerous trajectory. South Sudan cannot build a democratic future by excluding those with whom it disagrees. The parties must return to genuine dialogue, rebuild consensus and create the conditions in which political competition can take place without exclusion and violence.” Under the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), security-sector reform, accountability and constitutional reform were intended to establish the basis for credible elections. Yet the Agreement’s agreed sequence has not been honoured: the Government’s latest assessment shows that 46.4 per cent of the Agreement’s provisions remain outstanding, the unification of national forces remains incomplete and armed conflict has resumed. Proceeding to elections without addressing these deficiencies risks producing an outcome that lacks the conditions required for peaceful competition, meaningful participation and public confidence. “An election cannot be credible simply because it is held on schedule,” said Commissioner Carlos Castresana Fernández. “It is credible when citizens can vote without fear, political opponents can participate freely, courts can resolve disputes independently, and institutions can constrain the exercise of power. These are not optional conditions. They are the safeguards that make an election a peaceful democratic process. Without those safeguards, the ballot risks becoming another arena for conflict rather than a pathway out of it.” The Commission identifies essential conditions for a credible and non-violent electoral process: a genuine and monitored cessation of hostilities; unified national security forces under a non-partisan command; restored civic and political space; independent electoral institutions; effective and impartial ele
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