By Charles Marindoti Oludare In the run-up to the 2019 presidential election, Atiku Abubakar made one of those political statements that refuse to disappear. “I am not going to enrich members of my family but my friends,” he said, before adding that there was nothing wrong with his friends becoming richer provided there was no corruption. There is an extraordinary political symbolism to this remark.Did he misspeak or bespeak? This statement inadvertently capture a philosophy of government called crony capitalism in which access to state policy becomes another means through which those already closest to wealth and power become even wealthier? Those questions have returned because of Atiku’s latest intervention in the petrol-subsidy debate. Although his recent comments have been clarified to mean that he favours a limited subsidy connected to domestic refining rather than simply restoring every feature of the old imported-PMS subsidy regime. This mere distinction while matters, does not resolve the fundamental question:Why should petrol consumption be the preferred mechanism for transferring public resources to Nigerians? That is where the arithmetic becomes uncomfortable. I have repeatedly described universal petrol subsidy as welfare for the wealthy. That does not mean poor Nigerians receive no benefit from cheaper petrol. They clearly do. When petrol becomes cheaper, transportation can become cheaper. Some food-production and distribution costs can fall. Families running small generators may receive some benefit. But there is a fundamental rule that cannot be escaped: the direct benefit of a petrol subsidy follows the litre.If I consume ten litres of subsidized petrol and you consume one hundred litres, you receive ten times as much direct subsidy as I do. The subsidy does not ask who is poor.It asks who consumed the petrol.That immediately creates an enormous distributional problem. Only about 10% of Nigerian households own a car or truck, according to the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. In rural areas, ownership is 5%. Think about what that means. The poor farmer walking to his farm in my village in Ondo State or Atiku’s village in Adamawa State does not receive a direct subsidy on petrol he never purchased.The poor household cooking largely with firewood receives nothing from a litre it never bought. The worker travelling in a commercial bus shares the fuel consumed by that vehicle with perhaps ten or fifteen other passengers. Compare that with a wealthy Nigerian household with several SUVs, drivers, generators and businesses consuming hundreds or thousands of litres.Both are told that petrol subsidy exists “for Nigerians.” But they clearly do not receive the same benefit. The subsidy follows consumption.And consumption follows wealth.At petrol prices around ₦1,200 to ₦1,300 per litre, filling a large 100-litre SUV can cost roughly ₦120,000 to ₦130,000.Nigeria’s statutory minimum wage is ₦70,000. In other words, the amount required to fill one large luxury vehicle can exceed what a minimum-wage worker earns in an entire month. That should immediately tell us something about the distributional absurdity of an untargeted fuel subsidy. The owner of that vehicle can receive more direct subsidy during repeated refuelling than a poor Nigerian household may ever receive from the programme.And wealthy Nigerians rarely own only one petrol-consuming asset.There are several cars.There are generators.There are drivers.There may be fleets attached to companies and households.So when politicians speak romantically about “bringing back subsidy for the masses,” Nigerians should insist on a more serious question: which masses consume the litres? Consider a subsistence farmer in a village in Oka Akoko.He walks to his farm.He owns no SUV.He owns no large generator.His children attend a poorly equipped public school.The nearest health centre lacks basic equipment.The road leading to his community is deteriorating. Now consider a billionaire with homes across Nigeria, several cars, generators, large businesses and extensive personal transportation needs. If government spends ₦1000 subsidising every 10 litres consumed, which of these two Nigerians receives the greater direct benefit? The arithmetic answers the question.Yet the poor farmer is often used as the political justification for subsidising the billionaire’s litres. That is what makes universal petrol subsidy such a peculiar welfare programme for the wealthy.The poorer you are and the less petrol you consume, the less direct assistance you receive. The wealthier you are and the more petrol-consuming assets you possess, the larger your absolute benefit becomes.The administra
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