Legendary economist Gary Shilling says consumer signals point to a recession in the next 12 months

Gary Shilling, a prominent economist known for predicting past market downturns, has stated that there is a 60-70% chance of a U.S. recession within the next year. He bases this on consumer behavior, noting that high energy costs and rising borrowing costs are pressuring households. Recent data showing an unexpected drop in retail sales in July supports his concerns. Shilling emphasizes that consumers are signaling economic strain, which could lead to a broader downturn.

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