Understanding Nigeria’s Seven Voting Blocs

Before the first ballot is cast in Nigeria’s presidential elections, some things are already in plain sight — but voters and commentators often miss them because of the emotions of the moment. In my previous article, ‘The Winning Formula for Presidential Elections’, I pointed out that Nigeria is built on a tripod — the Hausa/Fulani, the Igbo and the Yoruba — and that a successful candidate is the one who performs well in two out of these three blocs. These blocs dominate four of the six geo-political zones and control nearly two-thirds of the 36 states of the federation. They harbour massive votes. All winners of presidential elections since 1999 did well in at least two of these three blocs. I contended further that in addition to getting “two out of three”, the successful candidate must also win at least one of the minority geo-political zones: either the north-central or the south-south. Winning both would be better. But with the tripod now fielding formidable candidates,

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