The International Energy Agency (IEA) has readjusted its global oil supply forecast, projecting a fall of 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026 due to prolonged Middle East disruptions delaying a recovery in Gulf production. In its September Oil Market Report, the IEA said world oil supply is expected to average 100.7 million barrels per day this year, 1.3 million barrels per day below its previous forecast. Global production fell 1.6 million barrels per day month-over-month in August to 100.1 million barrels per day, with more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf production shut in amid heightened security risks. The agency also sharply lowered its demand outlook, forecasting a decline of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026.
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