2027: The opposition’s biggest enemy may not be Tinubu

As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, opposition parties face a paradox that could shape the presidential contest. While economic hardship, rising living costs, insecurity, unemployment, and public dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration's reforms provide ample campaign material, the political forces seeking to capitalize on these grievances remain deeply fragmented. The key question is not whether Nigerians are dissatisfied, but whether that dissatisfaction can be converted into a coherent electoral coalition capable of defeating an incumbent with a formidable political structure. Electoral politics is not merely a referendum on government performance but also a competition among political organizations to aggregate interests and identities.

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