The article discusses why oil prices are still close to $100 a barrel, even though oil exports from the Gulf region have returned to normal levels. Key points include: Oil Prices Remain High: Despite the recovery of Gulf oil exports, prices are still elevated due to ongoing fears of attacks on oil infrastructure, particularly in light of recent conflicts in the Middle East. Gulf Exports Recovered: Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to match their average levels from 2025, reaching about 23.3 million barrels a day. This recovery was helped by increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, despite some attacks in the region. Focus on Crude Oil: The increase in exports is mainly in crude oil, while exports of refined products like diesel and gasoline are much lower due to refinery outages and higher risks associated with transporting these fuels. Market Concerns: Traders are still worried about potential future attacks, which keeps prices high. Additionally, global oil inventories are low, prompting buyers to stock up while geopolitical risks persist. Future Price Predictions: Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict that oil prices might decrease to around $85 a barrel by the end of the year and $80 in 2027, but they also warn that any new escalations in conflict could push prices back up significantly. In summary, while oil supply has improved, ongoing geopolitical tensions and low inventory levels are keeping prices high.
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