•Asylum figure drops over 30% to 56,176 as world tightens rules •Strict border controls not solution, pushes migrants to dangerous routes – IOM •Desperation fuels irregular migration- Ex-envoy By Nkiruka Nnorom NIGERIA’S refugee crisis has deepened significantly, with the number of Nigerians living as refugees abroad surging by 36 per cent to 478,150 in six years, despite unprecedented tightening of immigration laws by major destination countries. Data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR, obtained by Vanguard, shows that the number of Nigerians recognised as refugees abroad under UNHCR mandate rose to 478,150 in 2025 from 352,960 in 2020 even as the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and the European Union, EU, continue to slam their doors with the toughest immigration curbs in modern history. The figure represents an increase of 125,190 persons or 36 per cent in six years. A year-on-year breakdown shows a steady, unbroken rise. From 352,960 in 2020, it rose to 383,660 in 2021, indicating an 8.7 per cent increase. It inched up to 391,120 in 2022, rose to 410,308 in 2024, and then spiked by 17 per cent to the current 478,150 in 2025, the sharpest rise in the period under review. UNHCR data indicated that the figure accelerated in 2026 with Niger, Cameroon and Chad alone now hosting 475,901 Nigerian refugees. Further breakdown shows that Niger (258,402), Cameroon (127,858), Canada (34,125), Chad (22,811) and Italy with 22,186 emerged the top five destinations for Nigeria’s refugees during the period with Niger, Cameroon and Chad hosting 85 per cent of the number, suggesting that most Nigerians who flee do not go far. In contrast, the number of Nigerians seeking asylum – those whose claims are pending – dropped by 35.6 per cent to 56,176 in 2025 from 87,289 in 2020, a development UNHCR Nigeria attributed to fewer pending claims in the United States. It said pending claims in the US fell to 3,033 during the period from 33,414 in 2020. UNHCR Nigeria told Vanguard that the declining asylum figure does not suggest a fall in the number of people fleeing the country, saying the figure represents claims awaiting a decision. “The figure falls when claims are decided or closed, not because fewer people are fleeing,” it said. On the rising refugee number, the UN refugee agency attributed it to the escalating conflict and insecurity across the country, noting that while economic hardship deepens vulnerability, the primary driver remains forced flight from violence. It further explained that neighbouring countries, generally, recognize Nigerians fleeing conflict as refugees on a group basis. “So they count as refugees, not asylum-seekers,” it explained. Meanwhile, the International Organisation for Migration, IOM, estimates that over 3.6 million Nigerians are internally displaced, a pool from which cross-border refugees emerge. The development technically places Nigeria in the same league as the world’s most troubled and war-torn nations that account for the highest refugee populations globally, including Myanmar, DR Congo, Afghanistan, Sudan, South Sudan, Syria and Ukraine. Country-by-country breakdown: How displacement exploded According to UNHCR data, refugee numbers have surged compared to when these countries were relatively more peaceful in 2020.Myanmar: When the situation was relatively calmer in 2020, Myanmar had 1.103 million refugees and 40,207 asylum seekers. By 2025, following escalated conflict, the number rose to 1.52 million refugees and 67,825 asylum seekers. DR Congo: In 2020, during a period of relative stability, DR Congo had 840,392 refugees and 145,372 asylum seekers. By 2025, the figure more than doubled to 1.78 million refugees and 168,421 asylum seekers. Afghanistan: Even in 2020, Afghanistan had a high 2.59 million refugees and 238,791 asylum seekers. By 2025, after the Taliban takeover and continued instability, the refugee population moved to 2.67 million, with 270,007 asylum seekers. Sudan: This shows the starkest deterioration. In 2020, when Sudan was relatively peaceful, it had 787,823 refugees and 70,049 asylum seekers. By 2025, after the 2023 civil war, it rose to 2.39 million refugees and 940,297 asylum seekers, a threefold increase in refugees and over thirteenfold increase in asylum seekers. South Sudan: In 2020, South Sudan had 2.18 million refugees and 4,858 asylum seekers. By 2025, it increased to 2.39 million refugees and 123,984 asylum seekers, with asylum seekers rising dramatically. Syrian Arab Republic: In 2020, at the height of the Syrian crisis, Syria had 6.703 million refugees and 107,085 asylum seekers. By 2025, the number had declined to 4.87 million refugees and 154,355 asylum seekers, reflecting some returns but continued displacement. Ukraine: This is the clearest ca
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